Jump to content


Photo
- - - - -

Another Bad Wildfire Fire Season


  • Please log in to reply
16 replies to this topic

#11 LuckyDan

LuckyDan

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 644 posts
  • LocationBased in Eastern, NOW CENTRAL Oregon

Posted 27 April 2021 - 04:00 AM

I know this thread kinda ended a few days ago. I had to run to the woods. I’m plugged back in now. Below is what the modeling geeks/crystal ballers think. The next update is coming up in a few days:

https://www.predicti...nal_outlook.pdf

If you’re really curious, the lines on the map that look like counties are a respective states Predictive Service Areas. The specifics for one can usually be found on your Geographic Area Coordination Center, (GACC) site. For example here is some stuff from the Northwest GACC:

https://gacc.nifc.go...hlySeasonal.pdf

Like a lot of things Governmentese, there is useful stuff there, but it takes a little or a lot of wading around to find it.

Camp on Wanderers.

Edited by LuckyDan, 27 April 2021 - 04:26 AM.

  • 2

Old, bum around in Ford and an even older FWC Grandby

New Mantra: "Everyday camping is just making up for lost time"


#12 rando

rando

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,638 posts
  • LocationColorado

Posted 10 May 2021 - 03:12 PM

It is hard to see how increased wildfire danger is not going to become the 'new normal'.     Speaking of which, NOAA just updated their 30 year 'normals' from 1980 - 2010 to now be 1990 - 2020.   It is pretty easy to see why wildfire in the west is becoming a large problem and will continue to do so.   
 

Looking at the change in temperature from 1980-2010 to 1990-2020:

QLDWVL6BGRCVBGTHGCZUGMQQPA.jpg&w=916

 

For much of the west, the long term mean temperature has increased >0.5F in just the last 10 years.  Combine that with the shift in long term precipitation averages over the past 10 years:

UARYIXGCLREYVDGHCZJ2HNWYOU.jpg&w=916

 

And it is very easy to see why wildfire is a huge and growing problem. 

 

The new normals are all available on the NOAA website to play around with:

https://www.noaa.gov...-climate-change


  • 1

2016 Fleet Flatbed

2016 Toyota Tacoma


#13 craig333

craig333

    Riley's Human

  • Members
  • 8,000 posts
  • LocationSacramento

Posted 10 May 2021 - 04:46 PM

When I worked for CDF in the late 70s early 80s we started in June but that was basically a training month. We didn't really expect fires until July and later. You had a five maybe six month fire season (talking NE CA). Now its more like a nine or ten month season. 

 

I know a guy who was a CalFire engineer in Santa Rosa. The fires there scared him enough he left Calfire after the season. 

 

The number of fire starts this already surpass last season. Its going to be a scary year. When I camp I look for evacuation access, safe spots and I'm prepared to abandon my gear if I need to bail quickly. 

 

I won't be surprised if some of the forests are closed by August. 


  • 2

Craig K6JGV_________________________ 2004 2500 CTD 4X4 FWC HAWK 1960 CJ5


#14 LuckyDan

LuckyDan

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 644 posts
  • LocationBased in Eastern, NOW CENTRAL Oregon

Posted 16 May 2021 - 07:16 AM

Indicator things are starting to look tough all over:

https://ktvz.com/new...int-since-1974/

https://www.predicti...ks/outlooks.htm

Edited by LuckyDan, 16 May 2021 - 07:19 AM.

  • 0

Old, bum around in Ford and an even older FWC Grandby

New Mantra: "Everyday camping is just making up for lost time"


#15 AWG_Pics

AWG_Pics

    Into the Great Empty

  • Members
  • 1,190 posts
  • LocationOregon

Posted 16 May 2021 - 03:46 PM

Like Craig says: know your emergency egress routes. And pick your campsite very carefully. Being deep in the trees is not the comfort it used to be. Make sure the grasses are not all into your campsite. And really, just forego an open fire or charcoal grill. There are still plenty of very nice dry camp sites out there. And if you plan carefully you may find some real well watered gems even in dry places like Nevada or southern Utah. 

 

We recently spent 4 nights making our way back from my sister's place in Benson AZ. No reservations ahead of time but we found 4 great spots to spend the nite, 2 of which were in under-used campgrounds. One of those campgrounds had lots of open spaces and fantastic views. Our two boondocking sites were on BLM or USFS land -- so good maps will help a lot.

 

We consider how popular an area is, how much crappy road gets you where you want to be (the longer, the better), the time of day (try to stop mid afternoon at the latest) and the day of the week (mid-week is better).

 

But, back to the point, we always consider fire potential wherever we go. It is just the new normal, so we tell ourselves to adapt, suck it up, and enjoy what is still available -- which, again, is way more than we will ever see in our lifetimes.


  • 0

lived for several years each in Montana, Utah, Idaho, Texas, Washington, Oregon.

2019 Tundra, Hawk.

https://www.flickr.c...hotos/awg_pics/

 


#16 LuckyDan

LuckyDan

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 644 posts
  • LocationBased in Eastern, NOW CENTRAL Oregon

Posted 17 May 2021 - 06:34 AM

It’s interesting Craig and AWG mention situational awareness, escape routes and such. Somewhere on the internet is an old video of a bunch of people caught in a campground/trailhead in Montana as a fire burned past. There is the news video from a few years back of a bunch of visitors cut off by fire and getting flown out at Yosemite. Back in the 90’s a couple three hikers rode out a passing fire in their car at one of the North Rim trailheads originating on the North Kaibab Nat Forest. I’m familiar with a buckaroo camp that got burnt over in the Hells Canyon Wilderness.

Point of all this is getting caught by a fire while out in the wilds can happen and I’ll offer happens more than people think, certainly more than people see or read in the news. Craigs’ and AWG’s advice is worthwhile and timely.

Travel on....
  • 1

Old, bum around in Ford and an even older FWC Grandby

New Mantra: "Everyday camping is just making up for lost time"


#17 Hoopy

Hoopy

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 84 posts
  • Locationsouthern Wa

Posted 17 May 2021 - 01:56 PM

      Without hesitation I can wait for cooler weather and seasonal fire bans to be lifted. It has been the norm to my friends and neighbors to converse grimly with what this fire season will bring us,   Anymore with the combination  poor rainfall  in our area and having the AQI that was  possibly heralded as the worst in the country (columbia gorge) last fire season has us apprehensive for what is to come.  To hear first hand from friends of evacuations and loss of property is harsh to say  the least.  My wife organized a meal train  and donations for a colleague  whose family lost everything but the clothes on thier backs  last season(no lives lost). I can wait for the burn ban to be lifted.every fall before having a fire.  We love to hang around a fire .....its better than TV  to me,,,,, to look up and see stars is beautiful  as well.  Last year the forests south of us were closed early because of fires  just left unattended and not out.  Hopefully the masses heading out to enjoy our forests will become good stewards for the generations to come  hoopy


  • 1




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users