Thanks again for insights and expertise. I agree that scaling is going to be difficult. Still, what is the alternative? Our current fossil fuel system is simply unsustainable. Climate impacts are already being felt in a serious enough manner that they threaten our global economic and social systems. Food and water insecurity combined with mass migration, drought and severe weather already impact our world. Climate disruption is here, and unfortunately it will just get worse. We need to transition to a new paradigm, and we need to do it fast. Are there hurdles that need to be cleared? Yes. Can we clear them? I hope so. Europe is an excellent example of how fast it can happen. Adoption rates have skyrocketed across the continent.
It is difficult to imagine that the toxicity of mining lithium will be a greater health threat than fossil fuels. One in five deaths worldwide is directly attributable to fossil fuel pollution. https://www.hsph.har...aths-worldwide/. This number doesn’t include indirect deaths from environmental destruction, forced migration, government destabilization, and war associated with fossil fuel production. The overall numbers will just increase as the pollution and impacts get worse. Again, change is essential. I try to to be optimistic. There are numerous studies on the cradle to grave impacts of ICE vs BEV going back decades. This is settled science. No serious argument can be made that ICE is superior in this regard. The language that you refer to supports that conclusion. The grid will just get cleaner, and the gap will widen.
Tesla just released a white paper yesterday that you may find interesting. https://electrek.co/...Plan-Part-3.pdf. It is a detailed analysis of just what will be required to make the transition. They very well may be optimistic, but the numbers are in the paper. Have at it. I’d love to hear your impressions and learn from your expertise. At least, unlike empty CCS dreams and failed promises, the paper does not rely on technological solutions that don’t yet exist. In fact, battery advances will be forthcoming. BYD already has sodium based batteries in mass production and use in BEVs: https://seekingalpha...nt-forget-tesla. Other chemistry advances will no doubt be commercialized. Cobalt use has already fallen greatly in battery production. With LFP and other chemistries it won’t be needed: https://en.wikipedia...osphate_battery. Tesla’s new motor does not use rare earths. Additional progress will be made.
As for recycling, you may want to check out Redwood Materials as an example: https://www.redwoodm...ecycle-with-us/. They are a Lithium battery recycling company that will scale. Let’s just say it has sufficient financial backing. That market will mature. Presently, they target batteries from consumer electronics. The size of the problem with regard to phones and tablets is currently greater than with BEVS. The total life cycle of large battery packs should be decades. As it is, most all of those batteries made available due to accidents are reused. They have high value. I don’t expect that to ever change. Solar panel recycling is also beginning to scale. There is a large solar recycling center not far from where I live. These are all solvable problems. We need to stop burning stuff. There is no choice.
As to the CT, Tesla indicated in the white paper that it will have a 100 kWh pack. That may be an average across platforms, but we can expect high energy density, efficiency, and relatively low weight. We have been stuck in an era of inefficiency for decades. There is plenty of low hanging fruit in truck design and manufacturing to improve overall cost and efficiency. Hopefully, we are finally started down that track. Cheers.